Hat-tip to Sanjeev for finding this. It might be helpful for those trying to lose weight in a more structured manner.
Any time I see Hall's name, I can't help but be reminded of my good buddy Taubes. He is one of those "smart young biophysicists at NIH" who kept trying to set Gary Taubes straight. See Conservation of Energy -- Biophysicist Style , Gary Taubes Names Names. In my opinion, Taubes deliberately misleads his audience on the works of Kevin Hall (and Carson Chow) when he claims that these two still agreed with him that insulin so fundamentally regulates fat mass the whole G3P thing is ultimately irrelevant. For starters, the "can't store fat w/o carbs" used to be a key part of his hypothesis. For another, Taubes is left with scrambled eggs all over his face (cue Frasier episode ending theme) about the G3P issue. This is something when supposedly answering his critics, Taubes preferred ad hominem attacks on yours truly (I'm so confused!) than to address his Newsholme & Start problem.
Taubes insists it's still all about the insulin though, and others will have you think you're at the mercy of your cortisol, leptin, thyroid, etc. A problem here is that no doubt there are those who are legitimately genetically predisposed towards obesity in the mix of those afflicted in the course of this epidemic. For these relatively few, their hormonal milieu is such that their basal metabolisms are unusually slow and their substrate oxidation rates and preferences dysfunctional, etc. This can lead to increased energy intake due to an insatiable appetite or unconquerable fatigue. In this vein, the whole Eat Less Move More, ELMM, prescription may seem cruel (and ineffective) for this small proportion of the obese. But, it does not invalidate the "tautology". And, frankly, it does not speak to those who have become obese (including myself) as part of the wave of the epidemic.
I note that nowhere in this program is there a place to enter one's hormonal status. This model is based on predictions obviously calculated from "average" data. Do hormones come into play? Sure. And metabolic adaptations (reductions in RMR) are highly variable, but no doubt the simulator takes observed averages of this into account as well. Still, basically *if* one can consistently control intake and deliberately maintain a degree of activity, the result will be reduced weight for good.